Modi sarkar's bure din: Body blow to BJP in states it ruled with majorities

Business Standard: Whatever the final position of various parties turns out to be, it is evident that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has suffered severe body blows in the three Hindi heartland states it rules with substantial majorities – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It is too far behind in Chhattisgarh and will most likely not form the next government. The trends as of noon on the counting day show the Congress in the lead in the other two states as well, although these races are quite tight. Rajasthan would likely see a Congress government, though with a smaller majority than it expected. If at all the BJP wins Madhya Pradesh, it would do so by the proverbial skin of its teeth. That should come as no surprise (except to diehard BJP supporters) as all opinion surveys and most exit polls had predicted this outcome.

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It would be tempting to attribute this result to the anti-incumbency factor said to be prevalent in these states, perhaps twice over, because the BJP rules the Centre as well. Analysts may also cite the case of Mizoram, where the governing Congress is staring at a major loss to the Mizo National Front.

That would be lazy thinking. The Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) will retain power in what appears to be a landslide, not anticipated even by its most optimistic champions. And not to forget, both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh had not displayed any aversion to their ruling dispensations in the two previous elections. We need a better understanding of how elections are won or lost. BS