Karnataka verdict a blow to Congress' dream of challenging Modi in 2019

On the cusp of delivering a crushing defeat to the Congress in Karnataka Assembly election 2018, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Tuesday was on course to emerge as the largest single party in the state. But the 110-seat halfway mark of the 222 constituencies that went to the polls on Saturday was still eluding the party at the time of filing of this report. Elections to the remaining two seats will be held on May 28.

Interestingly, the Congress led the BJP in terms of vote share by over a percentage point. But, the BJP maximised its winnings in its areas of influence. If the Congress’ vote share was 38 per cent, the BJP's was 36.7 per cent.

The Janata Dal (Secular) proved that prophecies of its demise were premature. The JD(S) was on course to match its 2013 tally of 40 seats, and its vote share was 17.7 per cent, two percentage points less than in 2013. But, with BJP inching towards the majority mark, it seemed the JD (S) could have lost the opportunity to play the kingmaker.

Some of the ministers in the Siddaramaiah government were trailing, including the chief minister himself in one of the two seats in which he contested. He was trailing JD(S)'s G T Deve Gowda by over 27,000 votes in Chamundeshwari, and his defeat looked imminent. He was leading in Badami, the second seat that he contested, by 3,000 votes. The trend of some of the ministers losing suggested that there was anti-incumbency against individual legislators in the Siddaramaiah

A Congress defeat in Karnataka would deal a blow to the hopes the party nurses to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha. The Congress would try to recover some lost ground for the final battle when the Assembly elections to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram take place in November-December.